November Week Four (11/20 – 11/26) and Cyber Five Insights
Here is our 2022 Cyber Week update that we shared with clients, along with some additional charts:
• Holiday finally came. With November week four seeing a 68% WOW lift and Cyber Five revenue up 27% YOY – this is even stronger than the 17% YOY growth that Shopify is reporting for Black Friday – the high HHI consumer is spending!
• During Cyber Five, revenue was consistently up (~25%) across industries and followed a similar sales curve as prior years
• Email and SMS drove the strongest YOY revenue gains from a last click perspective
• Meta performance strengthened due to falling CPMs YOY — but CPMs still came in at +$26!
• Creative across digital and print was either product-dense gift guides or bold promotions — or both!
• We saw slightly less pieces in home last week vs. last year, but November week four was one of the highest volume weeks of the season
Month-to-date (11/1-11/27), ecommerce revenue is up 12% (revenue was down -1% before last week). November week four showed considerable positivity, vs. 2021 and vs. last week as Thanksgiving and Black Friday online sales hit record levels (source: CNBC). Across our clients, Black Friday revenue was up 29% vs. LY, indicating our clients targeting an affluent consumer fared well compared to ecommerce sales overall with Adobe reporting a 2.5% increase in retail sales so far this holiday season and Shopify reporting Black Friday up 17%.
Nov. Week 4 YOY
Black Friday YOY
While we have seen a softer WOW build in terms of revenue growth this holiday compared to the past three years, November week four reversed that trend with a 68% WOW revenue increase, which is more similar to 2019 and 2020. This hints to a return to pre-pandemic holiday shopping behavior, with a price-sensitive consumer waiting for deals and less fear around Shipageddon or inventory issues.
Nov. Week for WOW
Cyber Five (Thanksgiving – Cyber Monday) followed the same trends as the prior two years with Black Friday and Cyber Monday being the highest spending days — but with +25% growth YOY! We saw the strongest YOY growth on Black Friday (+29%) and the Sunday before Cyber Monday (+34%), pointing to many brands running Cyber Week sales or Early Cyber Monday promotions, to get the most out of key promo days.
AOV was flat YOY, even though YTD it has been trending +10% across industries. With many clients discounting 15%-20%, the flat AOV points to a mix of inflation and UPT increases. In other words, she is spending the same amount as last year, even if she perceives it as more valuable (which can be seen in the 13% conversion increase).
Every category, including Home Décor, saw a healthy YOY increase in revenue. Home Décor was driven by conversion increases while Apparel and Shoes & Accessories saw strong sessions and conversion.
Of course, there were clients that were flat or declining compared to last year over Cyber Five. Those clients fell into a few buckets:
• Ones that target an older consumer – the older consumer has been more reactive to negative news cycles and COVID. The brands that did well here offered strong promotions.
• Brands with large store presence – especially in home décor. This is not necessarily a bad thing – just a shift in buying behavior.
• Jewelry and discretionary accessories (e.g., hats, lingerie) – these categories are comping two massive years of growth
• Brands over reliant on Meta – as you see in the data below, social is consistently the softest channel in terms of session potential, but CPMs did decline YOY which is positive