As we approach the upcoming holiday season, we can expect to see a highly distracted consumer. The competition for wallet share will come from experiences and travel as well as a very engaging presidential election.
Consumer behavior will continue to be selective and as shoppers will be especially discerning when comparing available deals, shipping options, and loyalty benefits. Below you will find compiled predictions for holiday 2024 from around the industry.
Q4 2024 Compiled Research and Insights
2024 Holiday Outlook: Expert Perspectives on Seasonal Spending Retail TouchPoints (1 August 2024)
- Only two in five consumers expect their finances to improve in the next year, and 70% of consumers still feel concerned about inflation
- This is still slightly better than last year, but it is imperative to keep in mind that there will be heightened competition for wallet share – this is expected to come from the upcoming presidential election, travel, and experiences including dining out and socializing
- According to Open Secrets, which tracks campaign donations, Americans have already spent around $200M in small dollar donations alone (between $1 and $200) – this is expected to increase between now and November
2024 Holiday Shopping Trends Report Basis Technologies (July 2024)
- Most shoppers anticipate they’ll be maintaining (56%) or slightly increasing (29%) their spending compared to 2023
- 64% of consumers anticipate increases in holiday spending due to inflation driving up prices
- Those expecting to spend less cite concerns about the economy (44%), uncertainty about the future and election results (42%), and competing expenses (40%)
- Holiday shoppers are increasingly planning ahead, continuing a trend of an early start to holiday shopping
- 54% of holiday shoppers believe that Black Friday and Cyber Monday are not essential as they expect good deals to be available throughout the season
- Despite this, 52% still plan to shop on these days
- Unsurprisingly, Gen Z and Millennials lead the way in online shopping while Gen X and Baby Boomers still prefer traditional in-person shopping experiences
- 72% of shoppers plan to make purchases through a laptop/computer, 40% through an app, and 34% through a mobile browser
- 53% of holiday gift buyers prefer retailers that help them find unique gifts, and 48% like when retailers provide suggestions for entertaining, decorating, or gifting
- 46% want personalized recommendations and sales offers from brands and retailers
- Consumers will continue to prioritize savings, deals, and loyalty programs. Over half (53%) will select their gift-shopping destinations based on free shipping offers, while 51% are heavily influenced by sales events and promotions
Check Out Our 2024 Holiday Shopping Predictions Salesforce (18 June, 2024)
- Shoppers are taking on more debt. Salesforce research found that 37% of consumers are using credit cards more today than they were a year ago, while 32% report using credit services like “buy now, pay later” more frequently
- Increased reliance on credit isn’t due to consumers buying more. According to the Salesforce Shopping Index, online order volumes have been declining since 2022 and decreased by 2% YOY as of Q1 2024 – 47% of shoppers say they’re buying the same amount, while 40% are buying less compared to LY
- Holiday Shopping Predictions:
- 53% of shoppers are interested in using generative AI for inspiring the perfect present. Last holiday season, 17% of online purchases were influenced by both predictive and generative AI
- Black Friday becomes Cyber Friday – Unsurprisingly, holiday purchases will be concentrated during Cyber Week as consumers are motivated to get the best deals later in the season. Last year, Black Friday gained back 4% of online holiday sales, establishing itself as the biggest online shopping day of the year. This year, two-thirds of consumers are holding out to make big purchases until Cyber Week, and 65% of shoppers say Black Friday has the best discounts of the year
- Loyalty is key – Retailers will double down on loyal shoppers to avoid skyrocketing digital marketing costs in the fact of a busy election cycle and heightened competition from Chinese retailers. 46% of shoppers say earning and redeeming loyalty points is the second highest factor, behind price, influencing where they buy
Please reach out to your account team if you have any questions – we are here as a resource and hope you found this helpful!
